Continuing his surge against Barack Obama, Republican Senator John McCain has pulled ahead of his Democratic rival by five percentage points in the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey. McCain now leads Obama by a 46 percent to 41 percent margin. The results of the latest Reuters/Zogby poll represent a dramatic reversal from an identical survey taken last month. In the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47 percent to 40 percent.
Perhaps the most damning news from the poll for the Obama campaign is that McCain’s margin holds even in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr. According to the latest survey, in a four-way contest McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%. Last month in a hypothetical four way race, Obama scored a ten-point lead over McCain.
The poll traces the sudden shift in the 2008 race directly to Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where he had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners, according to the poll.
Obama’s vacation, the Georgia crisis and aggressive attacks by the McCain campaign are the key factors believed to be fueling John McCain’s recent surge in poll numbers.
“Since Obama returned from his overseas trip, it seems like McCain has thrown all the punches. Clearly, the blows have landed. In recent days, Obama is fighting back, going after McCain on the economy, the issue voters care about most. McCain has changed the dynamic of the race heading into the two conventions. That puts more pressure on Obama to go to Denver and effectively define himself and McCain,” said pollster John Zogby.
